Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:17, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	HNL 14:07	23%	6%	1.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 03m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 42m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:57 → SEA 14:49DL 728	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 16:39 → HNL 19:59DL 419	13h 02m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 54m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:58 → JFK 08:42DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m New York	JFK 10:05 → HNL 14:45DL 636	13h 47m	96%	65%
United Details →	DTW 09:00 → DEN 10:19UA 2302	1h 41m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 13m	97%	65%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5	12h 28m	96%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON