Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3420 DTW 10:20 → IAD 12:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1787 DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3420 Republic	DTW 10:20	IAD 12:03	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2884 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	IAD 10:23	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1787 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:08	IAD 16:41	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 4058 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 06:00	IAD 07:34	12%	8%	0.0%	88%
UA 6190 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 14:35	IAD 16:11	17%	7%	0.3%	83%
UA 6362 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 19:45	IAD 21:20	22%	10%	3.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON