Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 234 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 234 DTW 06:18 → IAH 08:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1957 DTW 12:50 → IAH 14:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 234 United	DTW 06:18	IAH 08:38	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	IAH 10:37	11%	3%	0.4%	84%
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:26	IAH 14:19	16%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 1633 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:25	IAH 22:24	16%	5%	0.5%	81%
DL 1718 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:00	IAH 17:53	18%	5%	0.5%	68%
F9 1957 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:50	IAH 14:54	19%	8%	0.9%	66%
UA 6251 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:55	IAH 12:57	13%	4%	0.4%	87%
UA 4032 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:40	IAH 20:50	23%	5%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON