Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:29	JAX 10:49	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:02	JAX 17:27	12%	5%	1.3%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → JAX 09:36DL 2326	4h 19m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990	6h 44m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 25m	99%	85%
American Details →	DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:53AA 5414 · flown by PSA	58m Philadelphia	PHL 08:51 → JAX 11:21AA 1791	5h 19m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → JAX 16:27DL 2720	6h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265	6h 14m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	1h 57m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	6h 30m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON