Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 334 DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 645 DTW 13:26 → LAS 14:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 334 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:59	LAS 10:12	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 421 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LAS 13:28	17%	4%	0.5%	76%
DL 544 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:40	LAS 19:54	17%	6%	0.5%	70%
F9 2801 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 08:30	LAS 09:57	17%	6%	0.8%	71%
DL 766 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	LAS 17:51	18%	6%	0.5%	73%
DL 916 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:43	LAS 21:58	19%	5%	0.5%	72%
WN 645 Southwest	DTW 13:26	LAS 14:46	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON