Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 523 DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest DL 694 DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 523 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	LAX 10:20	11%	2%	0.5%	76%
DL 634 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:50	LAX 14:35	12%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 883 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	LAX 17:33	13%	4%	0.5%	78%
DL 852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:20	LAX 20:04	15%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 694 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:59	LAX 22:46	16%	4%	0.5%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 02m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	53m Phoenix	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	88%	79%
United Details →	DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302	50m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LAX 19:01UA 1753	6h 29m	81%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON