Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4477 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4477 DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2604 DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4477 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	LGA 07:47	7%	3%	3.4%	87%
DL 1487 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	LGA 08:47	9%	3%	1.4%	90%
YX 4376 Republic	DTW 09:19	LGA 11:19	11%	5%	1.8%	no record
DL 1791 Delta	DTW 08:53	LGA 10:42	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 2589 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	LGA 11:50	16%	5%	1.0%	86%
DL 1669 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LGA 14:03	21%	10%	1.1%	76%
DL 2602 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:02	LGA 15:53	23%	10%	1.0%	76%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 14:11	LGA 16:11	24%	12%	1.5%	56%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:36	LGA 21:35	27%	15%	1.4%	68%
DL 2604 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:59	LGA 19:50	29%	13%	0.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON