Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2555 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2555 DTW 07:05 → MCO 09:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1582 DTW 16:26 → MCO 18:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2555 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	MCO 09:40	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	MCO 11:23	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:35	MCO 13:08	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 1123 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:23	MCO 14:58	17%	5%	0.7%	63%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:00	MCO 16:46	17%	8%	0.8%	76%
F9 3364 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 17:49	MCO 20:34	20%	8%	1.2%	72%
DL 1274 Delta	DTW 18:37	MCO 21:13	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1582 Southwest	DTW 16:26	MCO 18:57	31%	9%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON