tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5169 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 21:38 MDT 23:10 30% 13% 1.8% 70%
DL 4891 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 15:23 MDT 16:54 43% 13% 1.8% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → MDT 14:25DL 1354 7h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → MDT 10:56DL 1248 5h 39m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 12m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:53AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 07m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → MDT 10:08AA 5829 · flown by Piedmont 4h 06m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → MDT 13:17DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor 7h 00m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Dulles IAD 08:35 → MDT 09:40UA 4986 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 40m 88% 76%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426 2h 45m Chicago ORD 14:14 → MDT 17:16UA 533 6h 16m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439 51m Charlotte CLT 09:45 → MDT 11:37AA 5835 · flown by Piedmont 4h 37m 91% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:05 → DFW 18:01AA 3310 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:48 → MDT 22:59AA 2469 6h 54m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON