Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1627 Delta	DTW 08:48	MEM 09:47	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1230 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	MEM 21:01	13%	4%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 12m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	6h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	6h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700	6h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	6h 35m	100%	86%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	7h 37m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON