Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1020 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1020 DTW 06:00 → MIA 09:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2548 DTW 14:32 → MIA 17:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1020 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	MIA 09:06	9%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 1468 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:22	MIA 12:28	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2548 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:32	MIA 17:35	25%	9%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON