Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 08:40, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	MSY 10:14	9%	2%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 08:58 → MSY 09:29DL 1424	5h 12m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 20m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	7h 25m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678	6h 59m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	6h 29m	100%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:41 → DCA 08:31AA 5244 · flown by PSA	2h 54m Washington	DCA 11:25 → MSY 13:08AA 2586	7h 27m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON