Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3440 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 3440 DTW 05:31 → ORD 05:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1084 DTW 17:58 → ORD 18:29 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3440 Republic	DTW 05:31	ORD 05:58	5%	2%	1.4%	no record
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 06:45	ORD 07:30	11%	4%	1.6%	80%
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:25	ORD 10:48	14%	7%	1.3%	86%
OO 3819 SkyWest	DTW 10:13	ORD 10:36	14%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 11:00	ORD 11:29	15%	5%	0.6%	70%
DL 2840 Delta	DTW 07:34	ORD 07:52	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2027 United	DTW 07:29	ORD 07:54	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1503 United	DTW 09:02	ORD 09:27	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 3441 Republic	DTW 12:31	ORD 12:59	17%	5%	2.2%	no record
AA 4013 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 08:24	ORD 08:42	17%	4%	1.5%	93%worse than usual
MQ 3947 Envoy	DTW 20:58	ORD 21:26	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 13:08	ORD 13:40	20%	6%	3.1%	91%worse than usual
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:03	20%	7%	1.4%	78%
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	22%	10%	1.9%	71%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	26%	8%	1.4%	76%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 16:16	ORD 16:48	27%	8%	2.7%	81%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	29%	7%	0.8%	66%
UA 2771 United	DTW 19:17	ORD 19:42	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:24	ORD 16:48	30%	12%	1.9%	49%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	ORD 18:29	36%	10%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON