Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2968 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2968 DTW 07:05 → PHL 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1686 DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	PHL 08:41	7%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 5414 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:02	PHL 07:53	7%	4%	2.1%	100%
YX 4392 Republic	DTW 12:52	PHL 14:53	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:10	PHL 11:46	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 11:25	PHL 13:16	10%	5%	1.5%	82%
OH 5367 PSA	DTW 19:25	PHL 21:16	12%	7%	1.8%	no record
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:00	PHL 16:43	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:40	PHL 19:25	17%	5%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON