Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1070 DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 445 DTW 17:41 → PHX 19:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	PHX 09:44	9%	2%	0.5%	80%
F9 4671 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 06:05	PHX 07:38	10%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 839 American Flight history →	DTW 08:09	PHX 09:38	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 813 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:47	PHX 13:50	14%	4%	0.5%	80%
DL 1135 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:50	PHX 17:55	16%	5%	0.4%	67%
DL 2076 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:44	PHX 21:48	17%	5%	0.5%	74%
AA 445 American Flight history →	DTW 17:41	PHX 19:13	18%	5%	0.6%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON