Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3723 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:25	PVD 12:25	11%	6%	0.9%	69%
OO 3720 SkyWest	DTW 14:11	PVD 16:11	16%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 12m	99%	89%
United Details →	DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa	56m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → PVD 09:58UA 4492 · flown by GoJet	3h 58m	85%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	6h 04m	97%	84%
American Details →	DTW 06:41 → DCA 08:31AA 5244 · flown by PSA	1h 30m Washington	DCA 10:01 → PVD 11:33AA 5619 · flown by PSA	4h 52m	96%	83%
American Details →	DTW 09:37 → DCA 11:14AA 5660 · flown by PSA	1h 57m Washington	DCA 13:11 → PVD 14:52AA 2641	5h 15m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	7h 44m	99%	82%
American Details →	DTW 14:59 → CLT 16:57AA 1683	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 19:35 → PVD 21:54AA 2318	6h 55m	100%	81%
American Details →	DTW 10:59 → CLT 12:56AA 2582	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 16:20 → PVD 18:30AA 2338	7h 31m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa	50m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PVD 23:46UA 6142 · flown by Mesa	4h 01m	72%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON