Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	PWM 11:55	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	PWM 16:01	12%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:53AA 5414 · flown by PSA	57m Philadelphia	PHL 08:50 → PWM 10:31AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	4h 29m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	7h 43m	99%	86%
American Details →	DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → PWM 12:53AA 1744	5h 53m	94%	81%
American Details →	DTW 09:37 → DCA 11:14AA 5660 · flown by PSA	3h 23m Washington	DCA 14:37 → PWM 16:32AA 1423	6h 55m	98%	79%
American Details →	DTW 10:25 → ORD 10:48AA 6255 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → PWM 16:41AA 4741 · flown by Republic	6h 16m	96%	79%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47AA 4477 · flown by Republic	1h 08m New York	LGA 08:55 → PWM 10:26AA 4571 · flown by Republic	4h 26m	95%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:41 → DCA 08:31AA 5244 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Washington	DCA 10:03 → PWM 11:54AA 5528 · flown by PSA	5h 13m	96%	76%
American Details →	DTW 11:25 → PHL 13:16AA 5480 · flown by PSA	3h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 16:54 → PWM 18:34AA 6125 · flown by Piedmont	7h 09m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	47m New York	JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	4h 05m	72%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON