Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3073 at 14:25, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3073 Delta	DTW 14:25	RIC 16:05	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 4679 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 21:40	RIC 23:28	24%	9%	1.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	6h 39m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152	6h 55m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	5h 58m	99%	88%
American Details →	DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:29 → RIC 11:48AA 5119 · flown by PSA	4h 48m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 28m	99%	84%
United Details →	DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	6h 49m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263	5h 17m	95%	81%
American Details →	DTW 06:45 → ORD 07:30AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → RIC 12:19AA 2737	5h 34m	95%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa	50m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → RIC 23:18UA 4473 · flown by GoJet	3h 33m	72%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON