tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5240 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 07:45 ROC 09:08 14% 4% 1.0% 86%
DL 5211 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 14:25 ROC 15:48 28% 10% 1.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:53AA 5414 · flown by PSA 57m Philadelphia PHL 08:50 → ROC 10:21AA 6126 · flown by Piedmont 4h 19m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 6h 14m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742 5h 14m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047 6h 55m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → DTW 10:59 → CLT 12:56AA 2582 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 15:19 → ROC 17:19AA 2320 6h 20m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → DTW 11:00 → ORD 11:29UA 426 2h 26m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ROC 16:45UA 1239 5h 45m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → DTW 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 4058 · flown by Mesa 51m Dulles IAD 08:25 → ROC 09:52UA 4615 · flown by GoJet 3h 52m 82% 74%
AmericanDetails → DTW 14:59 → CLT 16:57AA 1683 3h 41m Charlotte CLT 20:38 → ROC 22:27AA 3155 7h 28m 100% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON