Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 492 DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 369 DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 492 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	SAN 10:27	15%	3%	0.4%	83%
DL 761 Delta	DTW 12:34	SAN 14:10	17%	5%	0.4%	no record
DL 700 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:23	SAN 22:01	19%	4%	0.5%	64%
DL 369 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	SAN 18:14	20%	5%	0.5%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	6h 37m	92%	81%
United Details →	DTW 09:00 → DEN 10:19UA 2302	56m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	89%	69%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 43m	82%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON