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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:17, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:12 → SJU 11:52DL 1930 6h 35m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 15m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 9h 19m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa 2h 06m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 9h 43m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 7h 30m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54AA 1439 2h 09m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 7h 50m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:00 → MIA 09:06AA 1020 2h 21m Miami MIA 11:27 → SJU 14:21AA 1613 8h 21m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 06:02 → PHL 07:53AA 5414 · flown by PSA 1h 50m Philadelphia PHL 09:43 → SJU 13:56AA 614 7h 54m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON