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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1857 Delta Flight history → DTW 09:25 SNA 11:05 15% 4% 0.5% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 09:00 → DEN 10:19UA 2302 3h 06m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 8h 57m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 26m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 53m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 14m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 9h 35m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 8h 50m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 08:09 → PHX 09:38AA 839 1h 36m Phoenix PHX 11:14 → SNA 12:53AA 1656 7h 44m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:38 → DFW 13:34AA 3101 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:18 → SNA 17:46AA 3223 9h 08m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON