Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3193 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3193 DTW 07:11 → STL 07:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2822 DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3193 Southwest	DTW 07:11	STL 07:57	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	STL 09:31	7%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:28	STL 13:05	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
DL 1541 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	STL 20:37	13%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:45	STL 17:24	13%	4%	0.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON