Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2852 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 2852 DTW 07:00 → TPA 09:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1355 DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	TPA 09:36	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2587 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	TPA 12:50	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
F9 1036 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:26	TPA 14:22	15%	7%	1.0%	71%
DL 1243 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:07	TPA 16:45	17%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 1355 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:59	TPA 22:35	17%	5%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON