Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4889 at 16:06, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:06	XNA 17:24	8%	3%	0.7%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 08:42 → XNA 09:35DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 18m	98%	91%
American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → XNA 14:17AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	99%	89%
American Details →	DTW 08:24 → ORD 08:42AA 4013 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 02m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:30DL 1710	6h 31m	100%	88%
American Details →	DTW 06:01 → PHL 07:52AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 36m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	7h 30m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → XNA 16:43DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 18m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	6h 40m	99%	85%
American Details →	DTW 16:16 → ORD 16:48AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 19:05 → XNA 21:01AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON