Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 409 Southwest	ECP 13:51	AUS 16:02	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ECP 15:55	AUS 18:13	17%	8%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	6h 04m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 38m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	ECP 10:53 → BNA 12:33WN 311	1h 51m Nashville	BNA 14:24 → AUS 16:43WN 1693	5h 50m	99%	84%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 37m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	6h 42m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	5h 41m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081	7h 20m	99%	81%
American Details →	ECP 12:08 → DFW 14:19AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	6h 14m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON