Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5159 PSA	ECP 08:25	CLT 11:03	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
OH 5126 PSA	ECP 13:27	CLT 16:05	15%	4%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 26m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	4h 41m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	6h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 05m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	5h 41m	99%	82%
American Details →	ECP 07:44 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	6h 52m	95%	77%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa	1h 13m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	6h 02m	90%	76%
American Details →	ECP 12:08 → DFW 14:19AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	6h 34m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON