Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1856 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1856 Southwest	ECP 06:26	DAL 08:33	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 17:33	DAL 19:39	15%	4%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 24m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 13m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 22m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 16m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON