Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4789 Republic	ECP 13:10	DCA 16:50	19%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	59m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	3h 57m	94%	82%
Southwest Details →	ECP 10:53 → BNA 12:33WN 311	1h 37m Nashville	BNA 14:10 → DCA 17:04WN 537	5h 11m	99%	80%
American Details →	ECP 07:44 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 15m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 44m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	5h 59m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727	6h 02m	99%	73%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa	58m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	6h 03m	86%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON