Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 830 at 10:11, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 830 Southwest	ECP 10:11	DEN 12:23	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 10m	99%	86%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 04m Houston	IAH 10:32 → DEN 11:59UA 2787	6h 29m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	6h 05m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 46m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	7h 18m	98%	81%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa	1h 36m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	6h 17m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	6h 56m	98%	80%
United Details →	ECP 11:40 → IAH 13:40UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 20m Houston	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	6h 03m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON