Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4120 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4120 ECP 07:44 → DFW 10:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2052 ECP 15:10 → DFW 17:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4120 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 07:44	DFW 10:08	8%	3%	1.0%	94%
AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 12:08	DFW 14:19	13%	3%	1.0%	73%
AA 2052 American	ECP 15:10	DFW 17:30	19%	7%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON