Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 4776 at 06:24, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4776 ECP 06:24 → IAH 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4776 SkyWest	ECP 06:24	IAH 08:25	5%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 4255 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ECP 06:30	IAH 08:28	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
UA 4034 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ECP 09:00	IAH 10:57	13%	5%	0.0%	87%
UA 4851 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ECP 11:40	IAH 13:40	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 4842 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ECP 17:05	IAH 19:10	29%	13%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON