tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 00m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490 6h 40m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 38m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 10:53 → BNA 12:33WN 311 1h 08m Nashville BNA 13:41 → LGA 16:59WN 2518 5h 06m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 32m Houston IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44UA 2181 9h 14m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997 6h 42m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:44 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:43 → LGA 16:31AA 2327 7h 47m 95% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON