tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 10:53, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ECP 10:53 → BNA 12:33WN 311 2h 53m Nashville BNA 15:26 → MCI 17:16WN 609 6h 23m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747 6h 18m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 37m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 18m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → ECP 12:08 → DFW 14:19AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:05 → MCI 18:46AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 6h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:52DL 3023 7h 05m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON