Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:12, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 03m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 56m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	ECP 10:53 → BNA 12:33WN 311	1h 54m Nashville	BNA 14:27 → MDW 16:13WN 1724	5h 20m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON