Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3497 Republic	ECP 14:09	ORD 16:57	22%	6%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	6h 34m	98%	81%
United Details →	ECP 06:30 → IAH 08:28UA 4255 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 27m Houston	IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:43UA 1691	8h 13m	99%	80%
United Details →	ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa	3h 00m Houston	IAH 13:57 → ORD 16:47UA 1299	7h 47m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	6h 24m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	5h 34m	98%	73%
American Details →	ECP 07:44 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:26 → ORD 14:00AA 1285	6h 16m	94%	73%
United Details →	ECP 11:40 → IAH 13:40UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 03m Houston	IAH 15:43 → ORD 18:33UA 2775	6h 53m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:51DL 1139	6h 04m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON