tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1861 at 16:01, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1861 Southwest ECP 16:01 STL 18:06 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 17m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 54m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 15m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 5h 18m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → ECP 11:40 → IAH 13:40UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 51m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 6h 02m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → ECP 09:00 → IAH 10:57UA 4034 · flown by Mesa 1h 08m Houston IAH 12:05 → STL 14:34UA 2042 5h 34m 88% 75%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:44 → DFW 10:08AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:58 → STL 14:57AA 1363 7h 13m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → ECP 17:05 → IAH 19:10UA 4842 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 20m Houston IAH 20:30 → STL 22:45UA 6187 · flown by Mesa 5h 40m 78% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON