tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1741 Delta Flight history → ELP 06:00 ATL 11:10 5% 2% 0.6% 92%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ELP 14:25 ATL 19:42 10% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:15 → ATL 15:30UA 2806 6h 30m 93% 81%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:40 → ORD 11:51AA 4006 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Chicago ORD 12:55 → ATL 16:10AA 616 6h 30m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → ATL 15:16UA 4079 · flown by Mesa 7h 31m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:09 → ATL 15:39AA 1008 6h 34m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 1h 17m Denver DEN 17:55 → ATL 23:11UA 248 6h 39m 86% 72%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:53 → DFW 12:51AA 1365 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:06 → ATL 19:36AA 2403 7h 43m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ELP 12:35 → IAH 15:40UA 4002 · flown by Mesa 2h 28m Houston IAH 18:08 → ATL 21:19UA 2240 6h 44m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 09:45 → ATL 17:15AA 753 9h 14m 97% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON