Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1317 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1317 ELP 05:51 → DEN 07:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4266 ELP 15:46 → DEN 17:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1317 Southwest	ELP 05:51	DEN 07:40	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 724 United Flight history →	ELP 07:00	DEN 08:53	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1728 United Flight history →	ELP 14:32	DEN 16:38	18%	6%	0.6%	79%
WN 4266 Southwest	ELP 15:46	DEN 17:38	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON