Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2319 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2319 ELP 06:55 → DFW 09:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1681 ELP 16:14 → DFW 19:10 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2319 American	ELP 06:55	DFW 09:52	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2029 American Flight history →	ELP 07:05	DFW 10:00	14%	5%	1.0%	87%
AA 1365 American Flight history →	ELP 09:53	DFW 12:51	14%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 3272 American	ELP 07:54	DFW 10:51	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3769 Envoy	ELP 13:59	DFW 16:57	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1658 American	ELP 12:13	DFW 15:10	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3981 Envoy	ELP 17:32	DFW 20:30	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	ELP 16:14	DFW 19:10	27%	10%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON