Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 5312 at 14:12, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5312 ELP 14:12 → IAH 17:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5312 SkyWest	ELP 14:12	IAH 17:17	13%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 6163 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ELP 07:00	IAH 10:02	7%	2%	0.3%	93%
UA 6303 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ELP 05:45	IAH 08:46	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 3994 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ELP 08:00	IAH 11:07	10%	5%	0.0%	90%
UA 4002 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ELP 12:35	IAH 15:40	17%	9%	1.0%	83%
UA 4339 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ELP 16:00	IAH 19:10	33%	13%	0.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON