tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4425 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4425 Southwest ELP 07:02 LAS 07:57 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 263 Southwest ELP 12:21 LAS 13:16 15% 4% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:40 → IAH 08:48UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 07m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 33m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 29m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 24m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → ELP 05:50 → DFW 08:56AA 2029 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → LAS 11:52AA 1482 7h 02m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:02 → IAH 11:11UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 35m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest 56m Los Angeles LAX 08:10 → LAS 09:33AA 6425 · flown by SkyWest 4h 32m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → ELP 11:00 → PHX 11:36AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 13:56 → LAS 15:17AA 2631 5h 17m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → ELP 12:23 → IAH 15:32UA 4002 · flown by Mesa 2h 38m Houston IAH 18:10 → LAS 19:22UA 2406 7h 59m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:53 → DFW 12:51AA 1365 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:27 → LAS 16:26AA 1573 7h 33m 97% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON