Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3296 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3296 ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6361 ELP 18:03 → LAX 19:18 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3296 Southwest	ELP 06:01	LAX 07:13	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4910 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 06:01	LAX 07:14	5%	3%	0.7%	96%
OO 4973 SkyWest	ELP 12:03	LAX 13:21	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1243 Southwest	ELP 12:56	LAX 14:09	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6361 SkyWest	ELP 18:03	LAX 19:18	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON