Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3484 Republic	ELP 08:41	ORD 12:52	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4006 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ELP 07:40	ORD 11:51	13%	4%	0.8%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	3h 55m Houston	IAH 13:57 → ORD 16:47UA 1299	8h 47m	100%	80%
United Details →	ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:43UA 1691	7h 58m	99%	80%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 22m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 55m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	7h 14m	98%	78%
American Details →	ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 09:30 → ORD 15:48AA 2998	8h 47m	97%	77%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	7h 46m	96%	71%
United Details →	ELP 12:35 → IAH 15:40UA 4002 · flown by Mesa	3h 04m Houston	IAH 18:44 → ORD 21:40UA 2197	8h 05m	94%	71%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	1h 32m Denver	DEN 18:10 → ORD 21:43UA 2272	6h 11m	88%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON