Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2114 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2114 ELP 06:36 → PHX 07:06 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 225 ELP 17:46 → PHX 18:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2114 Southwest	ELP 06:36	PHX 07:06	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1888 Southwest	ELP 10:42	PHX 11:12	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4889 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ELP 11:01	PHX 11:37	12%	6%	0.7%	93%
AA 1133 American	ELP 07:46	PHX 08:21	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	ELP 15:35	PHX 16:10	15%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 225 Southwest	ELP 17:46	PHX 18:17	26%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON