tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 36m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa 3h 13m Houston IAH 14:20 → SAN 15:50UA 1114 8h 50m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → ELP 11:01 → PHX 11:37AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Phoenix PHX 14:19 → SAN 15:45AA 1951 5h 44m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 2h 22m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → ELP 09:53 → DFW 12:51AA 1365 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:44 → SAN 18:05AA 2266 9h 12m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:12 → SAN 14:32AA 1769 8h 27m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON