Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1892 at 09:21, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1892 Southwest	ELP 09:21	SAT 12:02	5%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	6h 38m	96%	86%
United Details →	ELP 08:00 → IAH 11:07UA 3994 · flown by Mesa	3h 38m Houston	IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030	6h 56m	97%	83%
American Details →	ELP 06:01 → LAX 07:14AA 4910 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 09:33 → SAT 14:38AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest	7h 37m	97%	81%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:52 → SAT 15:15AA 791	7h 10m	97%	79%
United Details →	ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	53m Houston	IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa	4h 01m	88%	78%
Delta Details →	ELP 14:25 → ATL 19:42DL 1002	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222	6h 54m	91%	75%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → IAH 10:02UA 6163 · flown by Mesa	2h 06m Houston	IAH 12:08 → SAT 13:17UA 6202 · flown by Mesa	5h 17m	98%	74%
United Details →	ELP 12:35 → IAH 15:40UA 4002 · flown by Mesa	3h 02m Houston	IAH 18:42 → SAT 19:50UA 1477	6h 15m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON