Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2191 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ELP 19:16	SEA 21:59	46%	22%	13.5%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ELP 06:00 → ATL 11:10DL 1741	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 50m	97%	86%
American Details →	ELP 11:01 → PHX 11:37AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Phoenix	PHX 14:19 → SEA 17:28AA 3934 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	94%	79%
United Details →	ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa	3h 16m Houston	IAH 12:02 → SEA 14:27UA 2228	9h 42m	99%	78%
United Details →	ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724	2h 31m Denver	DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058	7h 14m	96%	76%
American Details →	ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:17 → SEA 14:31AA 757	8h 26m	93%	67%
American Details →	ELP 09:53 → DFW 12:51AA 1365	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	7h 54m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON