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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 99% 91%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon 1h 15m Portland PDX 07:21 → BUR 09:36AS 1551 4h 16m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → EUG 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 335 58m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 3h 57m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → EUG 05:00 → DEN 08:37UA 1241 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon 1h 18m Seattle SEA 08:26 → BUR 10:54AS 1389 4h 54m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2179 · flown by Horizon 3h 02m Seattle SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529 6h 39m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON