Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 436 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 436 EUG 06:11 → DEN 09:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2618 EUG 14:31 → DEN 18:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 436 Southwest	EUG 06:11	DEN 09:49	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1241 United Flight history →	EUG 05:00	DEN 08:37	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1220 United	EUG 12:53	DEN 16:36	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2618 Southwest	EUG 14:31	DEN 18:08	23%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON